The illusion of a seamless American return to pre-Trump global leadership underestimates the deep geopolitical shifts and internal polarization the United States has undergone. The idea of a “Post-Trump Restoration” ignores that Trumpism — with its transactional diplomacy, skepticism toward alliances, and inward-looking nationalism — has left a lasting mark on U.S. foreign policy. Even under a different administration, allies remain wary of the volatility of American commitments.
Europe, meanwhile, faces a set of unenviable nuclear dilemmas. With the U.S. seen as a less reliable security guarantor, questions about European nuclear autonomy or increased reliance on France’s nuclear force have reemerged, yet remain politically sensitive and strategically ambiguous. Europe’s dependence on NATO contrasts sharply with its limited appetite for nuclear risk-sharing or deterrence responsibilities.
Adding to this fragile landscape are recent attacks, whether cyber, proxy, or direct, which reveal the West’s vulnerability to asymmetric threats. These underscore the need for updated security strategies that match today’s dispersed, gray-zone conflicts rather than Cold War-era deterrence models.
Together, these factors highlight that a simple return to the old order is not only unrealistic but potentially dangerous if it blinds leaders to the need for deeper reform and recalibrated strategic thinking.